Growth Model - The 100-Cottage Flywheel
Updated: December 19, 2025
Version: 4.0
Author: Secret Trees Core
Overview
Secret Trees follows a demand-first flywheel model that scales from 1 cottage to 100 cottages through the GreenPact Protocol.
Key Insight: Build demand FIRST (100 Ricardian Contracts), then scale construction. Property owners provide land only - Secret Trees funds 100% of the €84K cottage (construction companies are just contractors).
The GreenPact Flywheel Mechanism
How Each Cottage Gets Funded
| Source | Amount | % | Who Provides |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Trees | €84,000 | 100% | Investor equity + subs + profits |
| Construction Company | €0 | 0% | Contractor (paid normally) |
| Property Owner | €0 | 0% | Land only (no cash) |
| Total | €84,000 | 100% |
Why Property Owners Line Up
Annual Income Per Cottage (Zero Investment):
| Stream | Amount |
|---|---|
| Fixed Rent | €3,000-5,000 |
| Profit Share (20%) | €4,000-5,000 |
| Total | €7,000-10,000 |
Property Owner Return:
- Investment: €0 (land only)
- Annual income: €7,000-10,000
- Return: Infinite (no cash investment required)
5-Year Scaling Model
The Flywheel in Action
| Year | Cottages | Total Revenue | Platform Fees | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 0→1 | €0→€40K | €0→€4K | Bootstrap + first cottage (18-24 months) |
| 2 | 2-3 | €80-120K | €8-12K | Proof of concept validated |
| 3 | 5-8 | €200-320K | €20-32K | Corporate pre-sales fund expansion |
| 4 | 15-25 | €600K-1M | €60-100K | Flywheel accelerates |
| 5 | 40-60 | €1.6-2.4M | €160-240K | Multiple property owners joining |
| 6+ | 100+ | €4M+ | €400K+ | Self-sustaining ecosystem |
Note: Year 0-1 combined because first cottage takes 18-24 months to complete. Revenue begins when cottage is operational.
How the Flywheel Accelerates
Year 1-2: Prove the Model
- 2 cottages demonstrate the economics
- Property owners see €7-10K/year income on zero investment
- Corporations see reliable CCT delivery
- Word spreads in both markets
Year 3: Flywheel Kicks In
- Property owners approach Secret Trees (not vice versa)
- Corporate demand exceeds supply
- Pre-payments fund construction faster
- Platform fees fund operations
Year 4-5: Self-Sustaining Growth
- 40→100 cottages without additional fundraising
- Platform revenue: €400K+/year
- Network effects compound
- Geographic expansion possible
Platform Revenue Model
Fee Structure at Scale (100 Cottages)
| Fee Type | Rate | Annual Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| CCT Origination Fee | 10% | €60K-120K |
| CCT Secondary Trading Fee | 3% | €15K-30K |
| Cottage Coordination Fee | 5% | €420K (one-time per cottage) |
| Rental Booking Commission | 10% | €350K/year |
| Subscription Platform Fee | 100% | €120K-750K/year |
| Verification Service Fee | €200 | €20K/year |
Total Platform Revenue
| Scenario | Annual Revenue |
|---|---|
| Conservative | €855K |
| Optimistic | €1.86M |
Year-by-Year Breakdown
Year 0-1: Bootstrap Phase (€130K Investment)
What We Build:
- Land preparation and hemp planting at Secret Trees Gardens
- MRV device installation and monitoring setup
- Platform operational
- Corporate contracts signed (CCT pre-sales)
Timeline Reality - 18-24 Months to First Cottage: Hemp requires a full growing and processing cycle with MRV verification:
- Months 1-4: Land preparation, hemp planting (spring)
- Months 5-8: Hemp growing with MRV monitoring
- Months 9-10: Harvest (fall)
- Months 10-16: Field retting (3-6 weeks, may extend through winter)
- Months 16-20: Processing and hempcrete production
- Months 20-24: Cottage construction and completion
Why This Timeline is Non-Negotiable:
- MRV sensors track CO₂ sequestration from planting through construction
- EU CRCF certification requires documented sequestration chain
- Field retting is weather-dependent (may extend through winter in dry regions)
- Proper retting produces quality hempcrete for 50+ year buildings
Funding Sources:
- Corporate pre-sales: €50-60K
- Subscription pre-sales: €10-15K
- Investor funding: €55-65K
- Total: €130K
Outcome: First cottage operational in 18-24 months with full MRV verification and EU CRCF-compliant carbon credits
Year 1-2: Validation Phase
Metrics:
- First cottage completes (Month 18-24)
- First CCT tokens minted and delivered
- Platform operational with subscribers
- Corporate contracts fulfilled
Key Milestones:
- ✅ Hemp planted and MRV monitoring active (Month 1-4)
- ✅ Hemp harvest completed (Month 9-10)
- ✅ Field retting complete (Month 10-16)
- ✅ First cottage operational (Month 18-24)
- ✅ First CCT delivery to corporate buyers (Month 18-24)
- ✅ Subscription revenue generating throughout
- ✅ Second hemp planting begins (Year 2 spring)
Year 2-3: Expansion Phase
Metrics:
- 2-5 cottages operational
- €80-200K total revenue
- €8-20K platform fees
- 10-30 corporate contracts signed
Key Milestones:
- ✅ First cottage generating rental income
- ✅ Second property owner onboarded
- ✅ Corporate pre-payments funding new cottages
- ✅ Revenue-backed financing established
- ✅ Flywheel mechanism proven
Year 3-4: Acceleration Phase
Metrics:
- 5-15 cottages operational
- €200-600K total revenue
- €20-60K platform fees
- 30-50+ corporate contracts signed
Key Milestones:
- ✅ Property owners approaching platform (inbound)
- ✅ Corporate demand exceeds supply
- ✅ Multi-year contracts becoming standard
- ✅ Geographic expansion planning
Year 4-5: Scale Phase
Metrics:
- 15-40 cottages operational
- €600K-1.6M total revenue
- €60-160K platform fees
- 50-100+ corporate contracts signed
Key Milestones:
- ✅ Multiple property owners in network
- ✅ Platform team fully funded by fees
- ✅ Automated contract processing
- ✅ Second country expansion
Year 5-6+: Maturity Phase
Metrics:
- 40-100+ cottages operational
- €1.6-4M+ total revenue
- €160-400K+ platform fees
- 100-200+ corporate contracts signed
Key Milestones:
- ✅ Self-sustaining ecosystem
- ✅ Platform profitable without fundraising
- ✅ Multiple countries operational
- ✅ Industry leadership established
The Corporate Pre-Purchase Engine
Why Corporations Pre-Purchase
- Price Advantage: €30-45/tonne vs €60+ market rate (25-50% savings)
- Tax Benefits: Immediate write-off in year of purchase
- Guaranteed Delivery: Ricardian Contract with take-or-pay provisions
- ESG Compliance: Verified, blockchain-transparent credits
- Story Value: "We funded the construction of sustainable housing"
Multi-Year Contract Example
10-Year Corporate Partnership:
- Commitment: 100 tonnes/year for 10 years
- Total: 1,000 tonnes
- Price: €40/tonne (locked in, below market)
- Total contract value: €40,000
- Upfront payment (20%): €8,000
- Annual payments: €3,200/year
This single contract provides:
- €8,000 immediate construction capital
- €3,200/year guaranteed revenue for 10 years
- Bankable asset for additional financing
100 such contracts = €800K upfront + €320K/year guaranteed
Risk Mitigation
Phased Validation
- Year 0: Build infrastructure (1-2 cottages)
- Year 1: Prove model works (first CCT delivery)
- Year 2: Validate demand (5 cottages)
- Year 3: Confirm scalability (15 cottages)
- Year 4-5: Scale to full capacity (100 cottages)
Multiple Revenue Streams
- CCT Sales: B2B carbon credits (high value)
- Rental Income: Eco-tourism (predictable)
- Hemp Products: Seeds, flowers (additional)
- Subscriptions: Consumer offsetting (recurring)
Demand-First Approach
- Pre-sell carbon credits before growing hemp
- Build cottages based on corporate commitments
- Scale based on signed contracts, not projections
Comparison: Old Model vs GreenPact Model
| Metric | Old Model | GreenPact Model |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Required | €4.2M for 100 cottages | €130K bootstrap only |
| Funding Source | Platform raises capital | Secret Trees funds 100% |
| Property Owner Role | Invest cash | Provide land only (€0 cash) |
| Construction Company Role | Invest 50% (€42K) | Contractor (paid normally, €0 investment) |
| Platform Role | Capital-intensive developer | Coordination platform |
| Scaling Speed | Limited by fundraising | Limited by demand (faster) |
| Risk | Shared with construction partner | Secret Trees bears risk (contractors just get paid) |
| Revenue Model | Revenue share | Platform fees + rental profit share |
Key Success Metrics
Year 1-2 Targets (First Cottage Cycle)
- [ ] First cottage operational (Month 18-24)
- [ ] 5+ corporate contracts signed
- [ ] 100+ subscribers
- [ ] First CCT tokens delivered
- [ ] Property owner income model demonstrated (€7-10K/year on zero investment)
Year 3-4 Targets
- [ ] 5-15 cottages operational
- [ ] 30-50+ corporate contracts signed
- [ ] 500+ subscribers
- [ ] €200-600K revenue generated
- [ ] 20% returns achieved for all stakeholders
Year 5-6+ Targets
- [ ] 40-100+ cottages operational
- [ ] 100-200+ corporate contracts signed
- [ ] 2,000+ subscribers
- [ ] €1.6-4M+ revenue generated
- [ ] Multiple countries operational
Next Steps
- Business Model - Platform fee structure
- Funding Options - Three funding pillars
- Financial Projections - Detailed numbers
- Investment Memo - Executive summary
Last Updated: December 20, 2025
Version: 4.1 (18-24 month MRV-verified timeline)
Author: Secret Trees Core