Growth Model - Detailed Projections
Updated: December 5, 2025
Version: 2.0
Overview
Secret Trees Gardens follows a realistic, phased growth strategy from 1 hectare proof of concept to 196 tonnes full capacity over 5 years.
Budget Update
Previous budget (€85K) was incomplete - missing €45K in essential infrastructure. Updated to realistic €130K for complete infrastructure.
5-Year CO₂ Sequestration Growth
Visual Growth Chart
| Year | Hectares | CO₂/Year | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 14t | Proof of Concept | |
| 2 | 2 | 28t | Careful Expansion | |
| 3 | 5 | 70t | Validated Growth | |
| 4 | 10 | 140t | Scaling Up | |
| 5 | 14 | 196t | Full Capacity |
Key Metrics
Property Capacity
- Total Land: 14 hectares
- Cottage Capacity: ~30 cottages (50m² each)
- Year 0 Investment: €130,000 (complete infrastructure)
- Full Capacity: 196 tonnes CO₂/year (Year 5)
Phased Approach
Why Gradual Growth?
We can't cultivate 14 hectares and build 10 cottages in Year 1. This phased approach:
- ✅ Validates demand at each step
- ✅ Reduces risk through proven milestones
- ✅ Self-funds expansion from profits
- ✅ Builds credibility with investors
Year-by-Year Breakdown
Year 0: Infrastructure Phase (€130K Investment)
What We Build:
- 1 demonstration cottage (complete infrastructure)
- Land preparation, roofing, utilities, solar, water/sewerage
- MRV device testing and validation
- Platform operational (subscriptions + corporate contracts)
Revenue Targets:
- Year 0: €0 (building phase)
- Fundraising: €130K from three streams
- Corporate pre-sales: €50-60K
- Subscription pre-sales: €10-15K
- Investor funding: €55-65K
Financial Outcome:
- Investment: €130K (complete infrastructure)
- Revenue: €0 (Year 0)
- Assets Created: 1 cottage + platform + MRV system (€130K value)
Year 1: Launch Phase (Self-Funded)
What We Build:
- 1 hectare hemp cultivation
- 14 tonnes CO₂ sequestered
- CCT minting and sales
- Subscription platform operational
Revenue Targets:
- CCT Sales: €630-840 (14 tonnes @ €45-60/tonne)
- T2 Basic Subscriptions: €12-30K (100-250 subscribers @ €10/mo)
- Cottage Bookings: €9-18K (1 cottage, 50% occupancy)
- Total: €22-49K
Financial Outcome:
- Investment: €30K (hemp cultivation from Year 0 profits)
- Revenue: €22-49K
- Net: -€8K to €19K (building phase, break-even target)
- Status: Proof of concept validation
Year 2: Careful Expansion (Self-Funded)
What We Build:
- 2 hectares total cultivation
- 28 tonnes CO₂ total
- 2 cottages operational
- Growing subscriber base
Revenue Targets:
- CCT Sales: €1,260-1,680 (28 tonnes @ €45-60/tonne)
- T2 Basic Subscriptions: €24-48K (200-400 subscribers @ €10/mo)
- Cottage Bookings: €26-36K (2 cottages, 50-60% occupancy)
- Total: €51-86K
Financial Outcome:
- Investment: €50K (from external funding or reserves)
- Revenue: €51-86K
- Net: €1-36K profit
- Status: Break-even achieved
Year 3: Validated Growth (Self-Funded)
What We Build:
- 5 hectares total cultivation
- 70 tonnes CO₂ total
- 5 cottages operational
- 500-2,500 subscribers
Revenue Targets:
- CCT Sales: €3,150-4,200 (70 tonnes @ €45-60/tonne)
- T2 Basic Subscriptions: €48-72K (400-600 subscribers @ €10/mo)
- Cottage Bookings: €65-91K (5 cottages, 50-60% occupancy)
- Total: €116-167K
Financial Outcome:
- Investment: €100K (from Year 1-2 profits + reserves)
- Revenue: €116-167K
- Net: €16-67K profit
- Status: Profitable and growing
Year 4: Scaling Up (Self-Funded)
What We Build:
- 10 hectares total cultivation
- 140 tonnes CO₂ total
- 10 cottages operational
- 1,000-5,000 subscribers
Revenue Targets:
- CCT Sales: €6,300-8,400 (140 tonnes @ €45-60/tonne)
- T2 Basic Subscriptions: €72-96K (600-800 subscribers @ €10/mo)
- Cottage Bookings: €130-182K (10 cottages, 50-60% occupancy)
- Total: €208-286K
Financial Outcome:
- Investment: €150K (from Year 3 profits)
- Revenue: €208-286K
- Net: €58-136K profit
- Status: Strong positive cash flow
Year 5: Full Capacity (Self-Funded)
What We Achieve:
- 14 hectares at full capacity
- 196 tonnes CO₂/year
- 10 cottages operational (capacity for 30 total)
- 2,000-10,000 subscribers
- Platform ready for replication
Revenue Targets:
- CCT Sales: €8,820-11,760 (196 tonnes @ €45-60/tonne)
- T2 Basic Subscriptions: €96-144K (800-1,200 subscribers @ €10/mo)
- Cottage Bookings: €130-182K (10 cottages, 50-60% occupancy)
- Total: €235-338K
Financial Outcome:
- Investment: €100K (from Year 4 profits)
- Revenue: €235-338K
- Net: €135-238K profit
- Status: Mature, profitable operation
Revenue Projections Table
| Year | Hectares | CO₂/Year | Cottages | CCT Sales | Subscriptions | Cottage Revenue | Total Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0t | 1 | €0 | €0 | €0 | €0 (building) |
| 1 | 1 | 14t | 1 | €630-840 | €12-30K | €9-18K | €22-49K |
| 2 | 2 | 28t | 2 | €1.3K | €24-48K | €26-36K | €51-86K |
| 3 | 5 | 70t | 5 | €3-4K | €48-72K | €65-91K | €116-167K |
| 4 | 10 | 140t | 10 | €6-8K | €72-96K | €130-182K | €208-286K |
| 5 | 14 | 196t | 10 | €9-12K | €96-144K | €130-182K | €235-338K |
Conservative Estimates
These projections use conservative assumptions:
- CCT pricing: €45-60/tonne (below market €85-250/tonne)
- Subscription growth: 100→500→2,500→10,000 (realistic)
- Cottage occupancy: 50-70% (below industry average)
- Pricing: €10-50/month subs, €80-150/night cottages
Self-Funding Model
How It Works
Year 0: €130K investment → €0 revenue → Complete infrastructure built
Year 1+: Profits fund expansion (with additional investment)
- Year 1 revenue (€22-49K) → Proves model, may need reserves for Y2 expansion
- Year 2 revenue (€51-86K) → Build 2nd cottage, expand cultivation
- Year 3 revenue (€116-167K) → Build cottages 3-5, scale operations
- Year 4-5 revenue (€200-340K) → Reach 10 cottages, approach capacity
Key Principle: Revenue grows with cottages. Model becomes self-sustaining by Year 3-4. Total 5-year cumulative: €630-926K.
Risk Mitigation
Phased Validation
- Year 0: Build infrastructure (1 cottage, complete systems)
- Year 1: Prove model works (1 hectare, CCT sales)
- Year 2: Validate demand (2 hectares, 2 cottages)
- Year 3: Confirm scalability (5 hectares, 5 cottages)
- Year 4-5: Scale to full capacity (10-14 hectares)
Multiple Revenue Streams
- CCT Sales: B2B carbon credits (high value)
- T2 Basic Subscriptions: Recurring revenue (predictable)
- Cottage Bookings: Eco-tourism (high margin)
Demand-First Approach
- Pre-sell carbon credits before growing hemp
- Build cottages based on booking demand
- Grow subscriptions before expanding capacity
Comparison: Conservative vs Ambitious
| Metric | Conservative (Lower) | Realistic (Upper) |
|---|---|---|
| Year 5 Revenue | €235K | €338K |
| Year 5 Profit | €100K | €180K |
| 5-Year Cumulative | €630K | €926K |
| Subscribers | 800 | 1,200 |
| CCT Price | €45/tonne | €60/tonne |
| Cottage Occupancy | 50% | 60% |
Our Approach: Plan for conservative, celebrate if ambitious.
Next Steps
- Business Model: Business Model
- Financial Projections: Financial Projections
- Bootstrap Strategy: Funding Options
- Investment Memo: Investment Memo
Last Updated: December 5, 2025