Financial Projections
Updated: December 19, 2025
Version: 5.0
Author: Secret Trees Core
GreenPact Protocol (December 19, 2025)
The GreenPact Protocol resolves the December 17 business model crisis. Property owners now provide land only (no cash investment). Secret Trees funds 100% of the €84K cottage (construction companies are just contractors). Everyone achieves 20% returns at scale (25-50 cottages).
The GreenPact Model: How Secret Trees Creates Value
Key Insight
Secret Trees is a platform for sustainable hemp product access. Property assets and rentals are the primary business model, with utility access to Ricardian Contracts for CO₂ tracking.
GreenPact Funding Structure (Per €84K Cottage)
| Source | Amount | % | Who Provides |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Trees | €84,000 | 100% | Investor equity + subs + profits |
| Construction Company | €0 | 0% | Contractor (paid normally) |
| Property Owner | €0 | 0% | Land only (no cash) |
| Total | €84,000 | 100% |
GreenPact Revenue Projections
| Year | Cottages | Rental Revenue | CCT Revenue | Platform Fees | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | €30K | €1.3K | €8K | €39K |
| 2 | 5 | €90K | €3.2K | €20K | €113K |
| 3 | 15 | €375K | €9.5K | €60K | €445K |
| 5 | 100 | €2.5M | €63K | €400K | €2.96M |
Investment Required
| Model | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|
| GreenPact Bootstrap | €130K | ✅ Current Model |
| Previous (RCBF) | €130K | ❌ Deprecated (unrealistic 89% ROI) |
Platform Fee Structure (Retained)
Secret Trees captures additional value through platform services:
| Fee Type | Rate | Revenue Potential |
|---|---|---|
| CCT Origination Fee | 10% | Variable |
| CCT Secondary Trading Fee | 3% | Variable |
| Subscription Platform Fee | 100% | €12-60K/year |
| Verification Service Fee | €200/property | Variable |
5-Year Flywheel Projections
The Self-Sustaining Growth Model
| Year | Cottages | Total Revenue | Platform Fees | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 0→1 | €0→€40K | €0→€4K | Bootstrap + first cottage (18-24 months) |
| 2 | 2-3 | €80-120K | €8-12K | Proof of concept validated |
| 3 | 5-8 | €200-320K | €20-32K | Corporate pre-sales fund expansion |
| 4 | 15-25 | €600K-1M | €60-100K | Flywheel accelerates |
| 5 | 40-60 | €1.6-2.4M | €160-240K | Multiple property owners joining |
| 6+ | 100+ | €4M+ | €400K+ | Self-sustaining ecosystem |
Note: Year 0-1 combined because first cottage takes 18-24 months to complete with full MRV verification.
Cumulative Platform Revenue (5 Years)
| Year | Annual Fees | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | €8K | €8K |
| 2 | €20K | €28K |
| 3 | €60K | €88K |
| 4 | €160K | €248K |
| 5 | €400K+ | €648K+ |
5-Year Platform Revenue: €648K+ (conservative)
Bootstrap Phase (€130K Investment)
Year 0: Infrastructure Phase
Investment: €130K (complete infrastructure) Revenue: €0 (building phase) Timeline: 18-24 months to first cottage (full MRV-verified hemp cycle)
The GreenPact Timeline Reality: Growing hemp with proper MRV verification requires 18-24 months from planting to hempcrete-ready cottage:
- Months 1-4: Land preparation, hemp planting (spring)
- Months 5-8: Hemp growing with MRV monitoring
- Months 9-10: Harvest (fall)
- Months 10-16: Field retting (3-6 weeks, may extend through winter)
- Months 16-20: Processing and hempcrete production
- Months 20-24: Cottage construction and completion
Why This Timeline is Correct:
- MRV sensors track CO₂ sequestration from planting through construction
- EU CRCF certification requires documented sequestration chain
- Proper field retting produces quality hempcrete
- Corporate buyers expect verified, credible carbon credits
Use of Funds:
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Land Preparation | €10K |
| Cottage Structure | €28K |
| Roofing | €11K |
| Windows & Doors | €5K |
| Water/Sewerage | €12K |
| Solar & Electrical | €25K |
| Heating System | €5.5K |
| Interior Finishing | €9.5K |
| Construction Labor | €10K |
| Permits & Legal | €5K |
| MRV Testing | €10K |
| Platform & Legal | €30K |
| CRCF Certification | €1.5K |
| Contingency (10%) | €12.5K |
| Total | €130K |
Deliverables:
- 1-2 demonstration cottages (complete infrastructure)
- MRV device tested and validated
- Platform operational
- First corporate contracts signed
- Own hemp cultivation started (for Year 2+ cottages)
Revenue Streams (4 Per Property)
1. Cottage Rental (Eco-Tourism)
| Year | Cottages | Occupancy | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 50-70% | €35-49K |
| 2 | 5 | 50-70% | €88-123K |
| 3 | 15 | 50-70% | €263-368K |
| 5 | 100 | 50-70% | €1.75-2.45M |
Platform Share: 10% booking commission
2. Carbon Credits (CCT)
| Year | Hectares | Tonnes CO₂ | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 28 | €1.3-1.7K |
| 2 | 5 | 70 | €3.2-4.2K |
| 3 | 15 | 210 | €9.5-12.6K |
| 5 | 100 | 1,400 | €63-84K |
Platform Share: 10% origination fee + 3% secondary trading
3. Hemp Seeds & Flowers
| Year | Hectares | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | €6-12K |
| 2 | 5 | €15-30K |
| 3 | 15 | €45-90K |
| 5 | 100 | €300-600K |
Platform Share: Coordination fee only
4. Consumer Subscriptions
| Year | Subscribers | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100-200 | €12-24K |
| 2 | 300-500 | €36-60K |
| 3 | 500-1,000 | €60-120K |
| 5 | 2,000-5,000 | €240-600K |
Platform Share: 100% (direct platform product)
Investment Options
Option A: Equity Investment
- Stake: 7-10% equity in Secret Trees Gardens LLC
- Returns: Profit sharing from property revenue
- Exit: Acquisition or IPO potential
- Risk: Property-level investment
Option B: Future NFT Membership
- Offer: NFT membership (Phase 2, 2027+)
- Benefits: DAO governance, platform discounts
- Returns: NO financial returns (governance only)
- Risk: Lower (no financial promises)
ROI Analysis
Bootstrap Investment (€130K)
Conservative Scenario:
- 5-Year Platform Revenue: €648K
- ROI: 398% (5x return)
Optimistic Scenario:
- 5-Year Platform Revenue: €1.2M+
- ROI: 823% (9x return)
Property Owner Income (GreenPact Model)
Zero Investment Required
In the GreenPact model, property owners provide land only (no cash investment). They receive passive income with zero risk.
| Income Stream | Amount |
|---|---|
| Fixed Rent | €3,000-5,000/year |
| Profit Share (20%) | €4,000-5,000/year |
| Total Income | €7,000-10,000/year |
| Investment Required | €0 (land only) |
Why Property Owners Line Up: Passive income with zero risk - they provide land only and manage their own bookings.
Corporate Pre-Purchase
- Investment: €21K (50% of 5-year CCT contract)
- CCT Value: €42K (at €45/tonne)
- Tax Savings: €6.3K (30% corporate rate)
- Effective Discount: 50% + tax benefits
Risk Mitigation
Diversified Revenue Streams
- 4 revenue streams per property
- Not dependent on single income source
- Platform fees from multiple activities
Demand-First Approach
- Pre-sell CCT before growing hemp
- Build cottages based on corporate commitments
- Scale based on signed contracts, not projections
Phased Validation
- Year 0: Build infrastructure (1-2 cottages)
- Year 1: Prove model works (first CCT delivery)
- Year 2: Validate demand (5 cottages)
- Year 3+: Scale via flywheel (no additional fundraising)
Phase 3+ Platform Revenue (2027+)
Beyond the 4 core revenue streams, Secret Trees has unique proprietary technology that enables additional revenue:
5. MRV-as-a-Service
- License AI-powered verification to other carbon projects
- 80% cost reduction vs manual verification
- Year 3+: €50-200K/year (5-10 external clients)
6. Ricardian Contract Templates
- License legal+blockchain contract templates
- First hemp-specific EU CRCF-compliant contracts
- Year 3+: €20-100K/year
7. Carbon Verification API
- API for other platforms to verify carbon sequestration
- Proprietary AI trained on real hemp building data
- Year 3+: €10-50K/year
8. Platform Licensing
- White-label entire platform (32K+ lines of code)
- Setup: €20-50K + €10-30K/year license
- Year 3+: €50-200K/year (3-5 licensees)
Unique Moat
No competitor has the integrated stack: AI + MRV + Ricardian Contracts + Platform. This combination enables revenue streams others can't replicate.
Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| GreenPact Bootstrap Investment | €130K |
| Property Owner Investment | €0 (land only) |
| Property Owner Income | €7-10K/year |
| 20% Returns at Scale | 25-50 cottages |
| Break-even | Year 2 |
The key insight: GreenPact Protocol enables scaling without requiring property owners to invest cash. Secret Trees funds 100% of cottages (construction companies are just contractors). Everyone achieves 20% returns at scale.
For complete business model, see Investment Memo and Business Model.
Last Updated: December 20, 2025
Version: 5.1 (18-24 month MRV-verified timeline)
Author: Secret Trees Core